South Africa have been outstanding so far. The Proteas fired on all cylinders in their opening game against Afghanistan. Riding on the back of Rickelton’s ton and a solid show from their middle-order, they scored above 300 and their bowlers prospered to knock Afghanistan over for 208. Their next game against Australia was washed out due to rain. The Proteas came up against a misfiring English side in their final group game and toppled them comprehensively with a brilliant all-round show that enabled them to top Group B.

12:50 Local Time, 07:50 GMT, 13:20 IST: The semi-finals of an ICC event is always a thrilling prospect – South Africa taking on New Zealand in Lahore in a knockout game fits the bill perfectly. Four of the five highest totals in this tournament have been made in Lahore. Two teams that boast of powerful batting lineups and to add fuel to that, it’s a surface which is usually tailormade for strokplay – this has all the makings of a run-fest. The Kiwis begun their journey in the marquee event with flying colours, having scored in excess of 300 and then restricting Pakistan with consummate ease. Will Young and Latham struck centuries while it was a collective effort from their bowlers. The Kiwi bowling attack shone once again in the next game buoyed by Bracewell’s 4-fer as they restricted Bangladesh to a sub-par total. Then, a century from Rachin enabled the Kiwis to sail through to a convincing victory. New Zealand though faultered in their last group game against India. On a slow, low surface, their batters succumbed to pressure against India’s quality spinners. Williamson fought a lone battle albeit in a losing cause.

Preview by Telford Vice:

In an increasingly mealy-mouthed cricket world, Herschelle Gibbs isn't often without a strong opinion on anything related to the game. But, on Tuesday, he paused, considered his verdict, and could manage only, "Not a lot to choose between those two."

Gibbs was trying to lean this way or that about which team might win the Champions Trophy semifinal between New Zealand and South Africa in Lahore on Tuesday. In fairness to him, it was a throwaway line delivered as he warmed up for a session in a Cape Town gym. So it wasn't as if he was being asked to apply his mind to the question. But in other, similar situations in the same gym, he hasn't hesitated to fire the sharpest of views, many of which would have had to be censored out of shape before they could be presented in forums like this.

If even Gibbs, who is among the most perspicacious pundits out there, struggles to see how a team could get the upper hand in this match, how might the rest of us parse them?

Even their travel schedules have been similar. The New Zealanders arrived in Lahore on Monday having made the pilgrimage to Dubai to play India - the only team among the eight in the tournament allowed to not be in Pakistan - on Sunday.

The South Africans and Australia were also there. Had New Zealand won, South Africa would have played India in Tuesday's semifinal. India's victory, by 44 runs, meant the Aussies stayed in Dubai for Tuesday's game. Having spent 18 hours in the Emirates neither playing nor training, South Africa travelled from there to Lahore on Monday.

It seems an age ago that New Zealand and South Africa met in an ODI, but it will be just 24 days ago when Mitchell Santner and Temba Bavuma walk out for the toss on Wednesday. And it was at the same ground to boot.

New Zealand won that Tri-Nations game by six wickets with eight balls remaining, but South Africa's XI on Wednesday will be markedly different. Of that squad of 13, only Temba Bavuma, Heinrich Klaasen, Wiaan Mulder and Keshav Maharaj are in the Champions Trophy 15. By contrast, Kyle Jamieson is the only New Zealand player in the current tournament who wasn't also involved last month.

That, at least, is a clear point of difference between the sides. As is the fact that South Africa are coming off two wins - over Afghanistan by 107 runs in Rawalpindi last Tuesday and England by seven wickets in Karachi on Saturday - having lost their three previous ODIs.

The Kiwis' loss to India on Sunday was their first defeat in five matches in the format. In the Champions Trophy, they beat Pakistan by 60 runs in Karachi on February 19 and Bangladesh by five wickets in Rawalpindi five days later.

But that's where the differences dry up. New Zealand and South Africa have each scored one of the six totals of 300 or more in the tournament, both in Karachi. They each have a player - Tom Latham and Ryan Rickelton - among the top 10 runscorers, but New Zealand have three of the leading 10 wicket-takers in Matt Henry, Will O'Rourke and Michael Bracewell. South Africa have only Wiaan Mulder. But the South Africans have Mulder and Keshav Maharaj in the top 10 economy rates, where Bracewell is the sole New Zealander.

Gibbs would not have considered all of that when he said what he said. He didn't need to. You don't have to crunch the numbers to know that there is precious little to choose between these two teams.

When: March 5, 2025; 14:00 Local, 11:00 SAT, 14:30 IST

Where: Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore

What to expect: No rain and a forecast high of 23 degrees Celsius. And, of course, runs - four of the five biggest totals in the tournament have been scored in Lahore.

Team news

New Zealand: If the choice is between Nathan Smith and Kyle Jamieson, Smith might crack the nod because of his better batting ability.

Probable XI: Will Young, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (capt), Nathan Smith, Matt Henry, Will O'Rourke

South Africa: George Linde was due to join the squad in Lahore on Tuesday night as a travelling reserve. However, Aiden Markram has been declared fit to play the game.

Probable XI: Ryan Rickelton, Temba Bavuma (capt), Rassie van der Dussen, Heinrich Klaasen (wk), David Miller, Marco Jansen, George Linde, Wiaan Mulder, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi

Did you know?

* South Africa are the only country who have been represented in the knockout stages of the last seven ICC tournaments, regardless of age group or gender.

* New Zealand have won both men's knockout games they have played against South Africa, in the 2011 and 2015 World Cups.

* Both teams have won this trophy, South Africa in 1998 and New Zealand in 2000, when it was still called the ICC Knockout.

What they said:

"Scheduling is an issue all around. I don't know what you can change. With the heavy international schedule and the franchise schedule, and then trying to schedule ICC events, it can be a challenge." - Mitchell Santner makes his contribution to the ongoing scheduling conversation.

"Probably logistically things could have been more efficient. But the guys did enjoy the time to galavant in Dubai. Some played golf, some went sightseeing, some went to the mall. So it was quite enjoyable from that perspective. For other guys it was just another day to recover. The guys made use of it as best they could. It probably wasn't necessary in the end, but it is what it is. We won't use that as an excuse in terms of our preparation." - Temba Bavuma on South Africa's enforced visit to India's home away from home, Dubai.

Squads:

South Africa Squad: Ryan Rickelton, Temba Bavuma(c), Rassie van der Dussen, Heinrich Klaasen(w), David Miller, Marco Jansen, George Linde, Wiaan Mulder, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Aiden Markram, Tristan Stubbs, Corbin Bosch, Tabraiz Shamsi, Tony de Zorzi

New Zealand Squad: Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham(w), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner(c), Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, William ORourke, Jacob Duffy, Devon Conway, Mark Chapman, Nathan Smith